Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

Prognostic factors and outcomes of COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia: multi-center cohort study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and became pandemic after emerging in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Several studies have been conducted to understand the key features of COVID-19 and its public health impact. However, the prognostic factors of COVID-19 are not well studied in the African setting. In this study, we aim to determine the epidemiological and clinical features of COVID-19 cases, immunological and virological courses, interaction with nutritional status, and response to treatment for COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia. METHODS: A multi-center cohort study design will be performed. Patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection admitted to selected treatment centers will be enrolled irrespective of their symptoms and followed-up for 12 months. Baseline epidemiological, clinical, laboratory and imaging data will be collected from treatment records, interviews, physical measurements, and biological samples. Follow-up data collection involves treatment and prognostic outcomes to be measured using different biomarkers and clinical parameters. Data collection will be done electronically using the Open Data Kit (ODK) software package and then exported to STATA/SPSS for analysis. Both descriptive and multivariable analyses will be performed to assess the independent determinants of the treatment outcome and prognosis to generate relevant information for informed prevention and case management. The primary outcomes of this study are death/survival and viral shedding. Secondary outcomes include epidemiological characteristics, clinical features, genetic frequency shifts (genotypic variations), and nutritional status. DISCUSSION: This is the first large prospective cohort study of patients in hospitals with COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The results will enable us to better understand the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa. This study will also provide useful information for effective public health measures and future pandemic preparedness and in response to outbreaks. It will also support policymakers in managing the epidemic based on scientific evidence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Protocol prospectively registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04584424) on 30 October, 2020.

Clinical Characteristics of COVID-19 Related Deaths in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Since the occurrence of COVID-19 in the world, it has claimed nearly 1.39 million human lives in the world and more than 1500 lives in Ethiopia. The number of deaths is increasing with variable distribution in the world. Despite its increasing fatality, the clinical characteristics of the deceased patients are not yet fully known. Analyzing the clinical characteristics of deceased patients will help to improve the outcome of infected patients. Hence, this study aimed to determine the clinical characteristics of patients who died due to COVID-19 in Ethiopia. METHODS: Hospital based multi-center cross-sectional study was conducted using chart review of deceased patients. Since the number of COVID-19 related deaths was limited, all consecutive COVID-19 related hospital deaths were analyzed. The data was entered into and analyzed using SPSS version 25.0. Descriptive statistics was used to explain the data collected from the survey. RESULT: A total of 92 deceased patient charts were analyzed. Of these patients, 65(71%) were males. Age ranged from 17 to 92 years (mean age being 59 years). On arrival vital signs, 60.5% of them had hypoxia, 49% had tachycardia and only 32% of patients had fever. Three fourth of the patients 64/85 had at least one comorbidity. Diabetes mellitus (DM) was the commonest comorbidity accounting for 445.9%, followed by hypertension, 23/85(27%), and HIV/ AIDS, 15/85 (17.5%). CONCLUSION: The results of this study showed that COVID-19 deceased patients presented with respiratory failure and hypoxia. However, less than a third of these patients had fever. In addition, the presence of comorbid illnesses and non-COVID-19 diseases like AIDS defining illness in significant amount needs further study to identify their level of contribution to the increasing burden of COVID-19 deaths in Ethiopia.

Clinical and Socio-demographic Profile of the First 33 COVID-19 Cases Treated at Dedicated Treatment Center in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Severe respiratory tract infection caused by family of Corona viruses has become world pandemic. The purpose of this study was to describe the first few COVID 19 cases in Ethiopia. METHOD: Descriptive study was conducted on the first 33 consecutive RT-PCR confirmed COVID 19 cases diagnosed and managed at Ekka-Kotebe COVID Treatment Center in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. RESULT: The median age of the cases was 36 years. Cough, headache and fever were the most frequent symptoms. Diarrhea, sore throats, loss of taste and/or smell sensation were among the rare symptoms. Most (84.8%) had mild to moderate disease, and 15.2%(n=5) were critical at the time of admission. Among the five ICU admissions, four patients required invasive mechanical ventilation. Thirty cases were discharged after two pairs of nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal samples turned negative for SARS CoV2. Three cases from the ICU died while on mechanical ventilator. The age of the two deaths was 65 years, and one was 60 years. With the exception of three, all cases were either imported from abroad or had contact with confirmed cases. CONCLUSION: Most of our patients were in the younger age group with male predominance and few with comorbidities. Cough was the commonest symptom followed by headache and fever. As it was in the early stage of the pandemic, observation of more cases in the future will reveal further clinical and demographic profiles of COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia.